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Just two days before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.