Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
