The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.