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"I will be sitting in the same position by 2027," the Prime Minister stated, noting that if our conversation was successful, he might invite us into Downing Street for another talk in 2026.

For a PM, there's never any downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before our chat started, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was much longer than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

With the new year begins, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a dreadful year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his allies kidding themselves if they believe his fortunes are about to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the leader is that many of his party members believe he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would sooner take a risk and oust him this year.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "judged at the poll", arguing nobody would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"This is the struggle of our times and I plan to be at the forefront," he declared.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a huge set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the voters was naturally impatient for things to get better. He sought to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when plans the administration put in place during their first choppy year began to show results.

• He vowed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a potential peace.

His big point is that soon the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from many directions for a more decisive approach, with much more political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political difficulty, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting clear political risks as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be content with these events seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "lifelong champion of international law" but we "simply lack the entire story at the moment".

Some called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has always been growing desire in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's doing that, but his new more concrete pledge to move closer with the single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely elicit accusations that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the choices that followed Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to