A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
