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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.